Real options valuation applied to dynamic transmission expansion planning

Bunn, D W and Lumbreras, S and Ramos, A and Chronopoulos, M (2016) Real options valuation applied to dynamic transmission expansion planning. Quantitative Finance, 16 (2). pp. 231-246. ISSN 1469-7688

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Official URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/146976...

Abstract

Transmission expansion planning (TEP) is a complex problem where building a new line involves a long permitting process of around 10 years. Therefore, transmission expansion must anticipate the evolution of uncertainties, particularly those derived from changes in the capacity and location of new generating facilities. As it is not possible to request permits for all possible lines, priorities must be established. We develop a formulation to use real options valuation to evaluate the potential benefit of candidate lines and thereby identify priority projects. We present a feasible representation of optionality in TEP projects and propose a tractable evaluation of option value. The proposed technique identifies the candidate transmission lines with the highest potential, as well as their main value drivers. This is implemented in a realistic large-scale case study based on the Spanish system.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2016 Taylor & Francis
Subjects: M > Mathematical programming
Subject Areas: Management Science and Operations
DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2015.1114362
Date Deposited: 30 Aug 2016 17:32
Last Modified: 30 Aug 2016 17:32
URI: http://lbsresearch.london.edu/id/eprint/548

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