Hennessy, C and Livdan, D (2021) Learning, Parameter Drift, and the Credibility Revolution. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117. pp. 395-417. ISSN 0304-3932
Abstract
This paper analyses extrapolation and inference using tax experiments in dynamic economies when shock processes are latent regime-shifting Markov chains. Belief revisions result in severe parameter drift: Response signs and magnitudes vary widely over time despite ideal exogeneity. Even with linear causal effects, shock responses are non-linear, preventing direct extrapolation. Analytical formulae are derived for extrapolating responses or inferring causal parameters. Extrapolation and inference hinges upon shock histories and correct assumptions regarding potential data generating processes. A martingale condition is necessary and sufficient for shock responses to directly recover comparative statics, but stochastic monotonicity is insufficient for correct sign inference.
More Details
Item Type: | Article |
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Subject Areas: | Finance |
Additional Information: |
© 2020 Elsevier. This manuscript version is made available under the Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license |
Date Deposited: | 10 Feb 2020 10:10 |
Date of first compliant deposit: | 07 Feb 2020 |
Subjects: | Learning |
Last Modified: | 18 Sep 2024 13:46 |
URI: | https://lbsresearch.london.edu/id/eprint/1365 |