Rotation as Contagion Mitigation

Ely, J, Galeotti, A and Steiner, J (2021) Rotation as Contagion Mitigation. Management Science, 67 (5). pp. 3117-3126. ISSN 0025-1909

Abstract

To prevent the spread of an infection an organization obeys social distancing restrictions and thus limits the number of its members physically present on a given day. We study rotation schemes in which mutually exclusive groups are active on different days. The frequency of rotation affects risk over the duration of diffusion prior to the time the organization is able to react to the infection. If this reaction time is speedy, then such risk is undesirable since prevalence is initially convex in time. In this case, frequent rotation acts as insurance against exposure-time risk and is optimal. Infrequent rotation becomes optimal if the organization reacts slowly. Cross-mixing of the rotating subpopulations is detrimental because it increases contacts between sick and healthy individuals. However, the effect of mixing is small if the terminal prevalence is low in the absence of mixing.