All's well that ages well: the economic value of targeting aging

Scott, A, Ellison, M and Sinclair, D A (2021) All's well that ages well: the economic value of targeting aging. Nature Aging, 1 (July). pp. 616-623. ISSN 2662-8465

Abstract

We evaluate the economic value of increases in life expectancy, improvements in health, and treatments that target aging. Using U.S. data, we show a compression of morbidity that improves health is more valuable than further increases in life expectancy, even though gains to health are diminishing. Treatments that target aging are particularly valuable as they produce both healthier and longer lives. We calculate a slowdown in aging that increases life expectancy by one year is worth $38 trillion, and by ten years $367 trillion. Evaluating the putative impact of metformin shows targeting aging offers potentially larger economic gains than eradicating individual diseases. Crucially, complementarities between health, longevity and age lead to a virtuous circle, in which delays in the rate of aging increase the value of further gains. Aligned with trends in demographics, this implies that the more progress is made in improving how we age the greater the value of further improvements.