Higher Moments in the Fundamental Specification of Electricity Forward Prices

Gianfreda, A, Scandolo, G and Bunn, D W (2022) Higher Moments in the Fundamental Specification of Electricity Forward Prices. Quantitative Finance, 22 (11). pp. 2063-2078. ISSN 1469-7688


An extended specification for estimating the risk premia necessary for the forward pricing of wholesale electricity is developed in order to respond to the increasing need for more precise risk management of hedging positions in practice. Using Taylor expansions, we provide new specifications for the electricity forward premium including its dependency on all four moments of the expected wholesale price density as well as the higher moments of the demand density including skewness and kurtosis. Overall we argue that previous models have been underspecified and that the extended formulation proposed in this analysis is robust and worthwhile.

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Item Type: Article
Subject Areas: Management Science and Operations
Date Deposited: 30 Sep 2022 16:00
Date of first compliant deposit: 30 Aug 2022
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2024 02:57
URI: https://lbsresearch.london.edu/id/eprint/2640

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