Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union

Reichlin, L, Ricco, G and Tarbe, M (2022) Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union. European Economic Review, 151. ISSN 0014-2921 (In Press)

Abstract

We study the monetary–fiscal mix in the European Monetary Union. The medium and long-run effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy are analysed by combining monetary policy shocks identified in a Structural VAR, and the general government budget constraint featuring a single central bank and multiple fiscal authorities. In response to a conventional easing of the policy rate, the cumulated response of the fiscal deficit is positive. Conversely, in response to an unconventional easing affecting the long end of the yield curve, the primary fiscal position barely moves. This is consistent with the long-run effect of unconventional monetary easing on the price index, which is about half that of conventional easing. The aggregate long-run cumulated surplus is mainly driven by Germany’s fiscal policy during the period in which unconventional monetary policy was adopted.