Affective Forecasting

Flynn, E, Hovasapian, A and Levine, L J (2020) Affective Forecasting. In: The Wiley Encyclopedia of Health Psychology. John Wiley & Sons, pp. 21-29. ISBN 9781119057833

Abstract

When making decisions about their health and well-being, people often try to anticipate how happy or unhappy a potential outcome will make them. The greater the predicted emotional impact, the more effort and resources people devote to attaining a positive outcome or avoiding a negative one. Thus, predicting emotion, known as “affective forecasting,” plays a major role in decision making, and inaccurate predictions can lead to poor choices. This entry reviews when and why people show biases in affective forecasting, over- or underestimating the emotional impact of future events, with an emphasis on forecasts related to health. Understanding sources of accuracy and bias in affective forecasting can help healthcare professionals guide people as they confront choices about genetic testing, cancer screening, vaccination, end-of-life medical provisions, and other important health-related issues.