Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide

Aksoy, C G, Guriev, SG and Treisman, D (2024) Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide. Journal of Politics, 86 (4). ISSN 0022-3816 (In Press)

Abstract

We provide the first large-scale, global evidence on the impact of the skill composition of trade on political approval. We show that political implications of trade shocks depend on the relationship between workers’ skills and the characteristics of goods traded. Using Gallup World Poll surveys of a million respondents from 121 countries over 2005–18, we show that growth in high-skill intensive exports increases confidence in government among skilled individuals relative to unskilled ones. Growth in high-skill intensive imports has the opposite effect. Growth in low-skill intensive exports (imports) increases (decreases) confidence in government among unskilled individuals relative to skilled ones. To identify causal relationships, we construct instruments based on time-varying effects of air and sea distances on bilateral trade in goods of different skill intensity.