Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults

Gomes, J F, Grotteria, M and Wachter, J A (2019) Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults. Review of Financial Studies, 32 (4). pp. 1275-1308. ISSN 0893-9454 OPEN ACCESS

Abstract

A growing literature shows that credit indicators forecast aggregate real outcomes. While researchers have proposed various explanations, the economic mechanism behind these results remains an open question. In this paper, we show that a simple, frictionless model explains empirical findings commonly attributed to credit cycles. Our key assumption is that firms have heterogeneous exposures to underlying economy-wide shocks. This leads to endogenous dispersion in credit quality that varies over time and predicts future excess returns and real outcomes.

More Details

Item Type: Article
Subject Areas: Finance
Date Deposited: 15 Oct 2019 14:27
Date of first compliant deposit: 16 Oct 2019
Last Modified: 30 Oct 2024 01:49
URI: https://lbsresearch.london.edu/id/eprint/1238
More

Export and Share


Download

Accepted Version - Text

Statistics

Altmetrics
View details on Dimensions' website

Downloads from LBS Research Online

View details

Actions (login required)

Edit Item Edit Item